A Bridge on Economic Issues between China and the World
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Long-run Trends in China’s Urban Unemployment and Labor Force Participation
Shuaizhang Feng, Yingyao Hu, Robert Moffitt, Jul 19, 2017Official unemployment rate in China is based on registered unemployment figures, but the official figures are likely underestimates of the true unemployment rates because many unemployed people are not qualified to register with government agencies and even those who are qualified may choose not to for various reasons. Shuaizhang Feng of Jinan University, and Yingyao Hu and Robert Moffitt, both of Johns Hopkins University, discuss their new effort to provide the first comprehensive picture of China’s labor market for the period 1988-2009 using Urban Household Survey (UHS) data administered by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
Trading Restriction as a Channel of Financial Contagion—Evidence from China’s Stock Market
Laura Xiaolei Liu, Jiajie Xu, Ninghua Zhong, Oct 18, 2017China’s stock market imposes various trading restrictions such as daily price limits and trading suspension rules, which are intended to stabilize the market during turmoil. During China’s stock market crash in the summer of 2015, these trading restrictions made many highly valued stocks non-tradable and consequently caused mutual funds facing redemption pressure or with precautious concerns to sell other tradable stocks, exacerbating their price drops.
Underestimated Role of Banks in China’s Bond Market
Marlene Amstad, Zhiguo He, Jul 17, 2019The role of banks in the Chinese bond market, the third largest in the world, is greatly underestimated when proxied only through the share of issuance. For the future growth and deepening of the Chinese bond market it will be important to lower reliance on banks in order for the bond market to play its intended role as a spare tire of the financial system.
Forecasting China’s Economic Growth
Patrick Higgins, Tao Zha, Karen Zhong, Jun 20, 2017As the second largest economy, China intrigues heated debates among policymakers and researchers alike on how fast its economy will grow in the future and how truthfully the official data reflect its actual economic growth. Patrick Higgins and Tao Zha from the Atlanta Fed and Karen Zhong from Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance develop a replicable econometric model to shed light on these issues.
The Financing of Local Government in China: Stimulus Loans Wane and Shadow Banking Waxes
Zhuo Chen, Zhiguo He, Chun Liu, Jinyu Liu, Jul 05, 2017The shadow banking activities in China surged in 2012-2013. Prof. Zhuo Chen and Prof. Chun Liu from Tsinghua University, Prof. Zhiguo He from Chicago Booth and Prof. Jinyu Liu from the University of International Business and Economics provide empirical evidence showing that the “barbarian growth” of China’s shadow banking during this period constitute a “hangover effect” from the four trillion RMB stimulus package in 2009.
