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Trade-Policy Dynamics: Evidence from 60 Years of US-China Trade

George Alessandria, Shafaat Khan, Armen Khederlarian, Kim Ruhl, Joseph Steinberg, May 04, 2022

International trade depends on the effects of past trade policy and expectations of future trade policy. Disentangling these two forces is difficult, but the US-China trade relationship is ideally suited for study. A large, and largely unexpected, trade liberalization in 1980 kicked off a long, gradual expansion of Chinese exports to the United States. Until China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, these low tariff rates were relatively easy to revoke, generating time-varying uncertainty over their future values.

Underestimated Role of Banks in China’s Bond Market

Marlene Amstad, Zhiguo He, Jul 17, 2019

The role of banks in the Chinese bond market, the third largest in the world, is greatly underestimated when proxied only through the share of issuance. For the future growth and deepening of the Chinese bond market it will be important to lower reliance on banks in order for the bond market to play its intended role as a spare tire of the financial system.

US–China Tensions

John Rogers, Bo Sun, Chris Webster, Apr 28, 2021

We construct a US–China Tensions index (UCT) and examine its economic transmission effects. The index spikes notably around the 2008 unrest in Tibet and the China military buildup, the 2018 arrest of a Huawei executive, and the 2018–2019 trade disputes. The index reaches its peak at the onset of the 2020 global pandemic. We interpret such tension as reflecting both the realization of new barriers between the two countries and the risk of existing barriers escalating. We show that heightened US–China Tension has adverse economic effects...

Production Networks and Firm Value: Evidence from the US-China Trade War

Yi Huang, Chen Lin, Sibo Liu, Heiwai Tang, Mar 25, 2020

This paper discusses the effects on the financial markets of the several rounds of tariff hikes during the 2018–19 US-China trade war. It illustrates that US firms that are more dependent on exports to and imports from China have lower stock prices around the announcement date, while the expectation of weakened Chinese import competition due to US tariffs plays an economically minimal role. Firms with indirect exposure to US-China trade through domestic supply chains also...

Shadow Banking: China’s Dual-Track Interest Rate Liberalization

Hao Wang, Honglin Wang, Lisheng Wang, Hao Zhou, Jul 26, 2017

Professors Hao Wang and Hao Zhou, both of Tsinghua University, Honglin Wang formerly of Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (HKIMR) and Lisheng Wang of Chinese University of Hong Kong, argue that the shadow banking explosion in China may constitute a dual-track reform mechanism to liberalize the country's rigid interest rate policy.