A Bridge on Economic Issues between China and the World
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Regional Variation of GDP per Head within China, 1080–1850: Implications for the Great Divergence Debate
Stephen Broadberry, Hanhui Guan, Sep 28, 2022We provide the first regional breakdown of GDP per head for China from the Song dynasty to the Qing, so that regions of similar size can be compared between Europe and Asia to establish the timing of the Great Divergence of living standards.
Selective Default by Local Governments in China
Haoyu Gao, Hong Ru, Dragon Yongjun Tang, Jan 10, 2018We identify bank loans to China’s local government financing vehicles and find that 1.7% of the loans that matured during the sample period failed to make the due payments. The LGFV loan default rate is much higher for commercial banks than for the China Development Bank, which provides more comprehensive financing for local governments than typical commercial banks. This selective default pattern is weaker during the ¥4-trillion stimulus period but stronger after 2010 when commercial banks exited the LGFV market.
Lessons from the Baby Bonus in South Korea: Increased Births and Restored Natural Sex Ratio
Wookun Kim, Jan 20, 2021I study the causal effects of South Korea’s baby bonus on fertility by exploiting temporal and spatial variation in pro-natalist cash transfers provided to families with newborn babies. Based on registry records spanning the universe of births from 2000 to 2015, I find that the baby bonus increased completed fertility: in the absence of the policy, the total fertility rate in 2015 would have been lower by 3%, which is equivalent to 450,000 fewer babies born...
Chinese Economic Growth Doesn’t Appear Overstated, but Its Heavy Reliance on Credit May Be a Cause for Concern
Hunter Clark, Jeff Dawson, Maxim Pinkovskiy, Xavier Sala-i-Martin, Jun 20, 2017Are China's official GDP growth number exaggerated? Hunter Clark, Jeff Dawson and Maxim Pinkovskiy from the New York Fed and Xavier Sala-i-Martin from Columbia University use satellite measurements of the intensity of China’s nighttime light emissions to proxy for GDP growth. Their estimate of Chinese GDP growth, since 2012, was never appreciably lower, and was in many years higher, than the GDP growth rate reported in the official statistics.
The Economic Toll of China’s Tutoring Ban
Zibin Huang, Yinan Liu, Mingming Ma, Leo Yang Yang, Aug 27, 2025China's 2021 “Double Reduction'' policy, which banned for-profit K12 academic tutoring, triggered an abrupt contraction in the education-services labor market. Using real-time job-posting and firm-registration data, we estimate over three million job openings lost in four months and at least 11 billion RMB in value-added tax (VAT) revenue losses within 18 months, alongside unintended negative spillovers to untargeted arts and sports training.
