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Human-Capital Externalities in China
Edward L. Glaeser, Ming Lu, Oct 10, 2018This paper provides evidence of heterogeneous human-capital externality using CHIP 2002, 2007, and 2013 data from urban China. After instrumenting city-level education using the number of relocated university departments across cities in the 1950s, one additional year of city-level education increases individual hourly wages by 22.0 percent, more than twice the OLS estimate. Human-capital externality is greater for all groups of urban residents in the instrumental variables estimation.
Can Credit Still Prop Up the Chinese Economy?
Sophia Chen, Lev Ratnovski, Feb 28, 2018Recent IMF research explores the effectiveness of credit in supporting the Chinese economy, and compares it with the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus. The study finds that credit contributed positively to output growth in China in the early 2000s, but the effect fell to almost zero post-2010. This suggests that, at present, credit cannot effectively support further growth of the Chinese economy. In contrast, the estimated fiscal multiplier is 1.4 post-2010, which is high in international and historic comparisons. Therefore, a targeted fiscal stimulus can cushion the adjustment of the Chinese economy to lower credit growth.
China’s Mobility Barriers and Employment Allocations
Liwa Rachel Ngai, Christopher Pissarides, Jin Wang, Mar 07, 2018Despite reforms to the hukou household registration system and the very large rural-urban migration experienced in China, rural households are still experiencing a risk of losing their land allocation if they migrate. We argue that this risk leads to an inefficient rental market with low rents and is an impediment to migration, with consequent over-employment in agriculture and low productivity.
Industrial Land Discount in China: A Public Finance Perspective
Zhiguo He, Scott Nelson, Yang Su, Anthony Lee Zhang, Fudong Zhang, Jul 25, 2022Local governments, which serve as monopolistic land sellers in China, face a trade-off when deciding to supply residential land versus industrial land. This trade-off is determined by the different time profiles of revenues from industrial and residential land sales, local governments’ financial constraints, and the extent of local governments’ tax revenue sharing with other levels of government.
Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy
Alberto Cavallo, Gita Gopinath, Brent Neiman, Jenny Tang, Sep 02, 2020We study the impact of recent tariffs on US prices at the border and at the store. Our results imply that, so far, the tariffs’ incidence has fallen in large part on US firms.
