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Interest rates and exchange rates when the money supply goes up
Saleem Bahaj, Ricardo Reis, May 21, 2025The power of monetary policy to affect interest rates and exchange rates depends on the downward slope of the demand function. This column uses the Chinese experiment with parallel currencies to study the impact of sudden increases in money supply. The authors find causal evidence that increases in money supply lead to currency depreciations, and use this to quantify the interest elasticity of reserve demand. The results can be used to understand how the People’s Bank of China maintained the peg between the mainland and parallel currencies.
Excessive Issuance of New Funds in China and Implications for Investor Protection
Shuai Ye, Jinfan Zhang, Kaixuan Zheng, Jun 25, 2025The Chinese mutual fund industry is only one-tenth the size of its US counterpart, but the number of funds in China has surpassed that of the US. Our study shows that such a large number of funds is unhealthy: managers issue new funds repetitively with different custodian banks, resulting in the average manager overseeing 2.7 funds. Managers shift profits to new funds in order to attract more flows. Among funds under the same manager, new funds have higher returns than old funds, spurring concerns over investor protection.
A New Method for Estimating Product-Level Emission Intensities and Implications for EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
Ohyun Kwon, Hao Zhao, Min Qiang Zhao, May 14, 2025We develop a new method for estimating product-level emission intensities (PLEI) by combining firm-level emissions with firm-product output data. This methodological innovation produces highly granular emission measures that are essential for both academic research and climate policy design. Applying the method to Chinese manufacturing data, we uncover stark heterogeneity: the top 10% of emission-intensive products account for 75% of emissions but only 4% of exports. We incorporate our PLEI estimates into a general equilibrium trade model to assess the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Our simulations demonstrate that, at the same carbon price, product-level CBAM achieves substantially greater emissions reductions than sector-level CBAM, while causing markedly less trade disruption. These results underscore the importance of product-level emission intensity data in designing targeted and cost-effective climate policies.
Building Tall, Falling Short: An Empirical Assessment of Chinese Skyscrapers
Ziyang Chen, Ting Chen, Yatang Lin, Jin Wang, Jun 04, 2025Amid debates around state-led urbanization in developing countries, we analyze the causes and consequences of China’s skyscraper boom. We find that local governments often subsidize these projects through discounted land prices, motivated by political incentives. However, we find that such subsidies offer minimal long-term benefits, largely due to a mismatch with local conditions.
Visible Hands: Professional Asset Managers’ Expectations and the Stock Market in China
John Ammer, John Rogers, Gang Wang, Yang Yu, Jun 11, 2025Mutual funds have become an important type of private institutional investor in Chinese security markets, with assets under management exceeding $3 trillion. We study how Chinese fund managers’ growth expectations affect their equity investment decisions, and in turn, the effects on stock prices. We identify a strong short-run causal effect of growth expectations on stock returns. We also find that fund investment helps bring prices in line with firms’ longer-run earnings prospects.
