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Input-Trade Liberalization, Female Skill Intensity, and Fertility in China

Feng Chen, Renliang Liu, Miaojie Yu, Apr 09, 2025

The interplay between trade liberalization and demographic behavior illuminates the challenges of reconciling career and family. This paper examines how gender-specific trade liberalization influences fertility, leveraging a Bartik-style shift-share instrumental variable strategy that incorporates female skill intensity into input tariff exposure. We find that input-trade liberalization significantly reduces fertility, particularly among highly educated women, private sector employees, and first-time mothers—groups experiencing the steepest career-family trade-offs. Mechanism analysis shows that enhanced labor market prospects raise the opportunity cost of childbearing, delaying or reducing family formation. These findings underscore the socioeconomic implications of trade policy for demographic trends.

Bilateral Economies of Scope in International Trade

Yao Amber Li, Sichuang Xu, Stephen R. Yeaple, Tengyu Zhao, Jan 15, 2025

This paper presents evidence that firms’ export and import decisions within the same foreign market are complementary, due to bilateral economies of scope that allow substantial cost savings when engaging in both activities. By quantifying these savings through a structural model, we show that bilateral economies of scope significantly enhance firms’ participation in international trade and amplify the effects of trade liberalization, offering new insights for policymakers and researchers.

E vs. G: Environmental Policy and Earnings Management in China

Darwin Choi, Feifei Lai, Mar 12, 2025

We examine the conflict between environmental and governance issues arising from China’s automatic air pollutant monitoring system, introduced in 2012. Our findings suggest that polluting firms engage in downward earnings management to potentially minimize regulatory attention, with factors such as firm size, profitability, and market conditions influencing the extent of this behavior. This study highlights the unintended consequences of environmental policies.

Migration and Resource Misallocation in China

Xiaolu Li, Lin Ma, Yang Tang, Oct 23, 2024

This article discusses how reducing frictions across Chinese provinces could significantly improve aggregate output, lower spatial inequality, and discourage population concentration in large cities.

Returnees and Innovation: Evidence from Chinese Publicly Listed Firms

Yibo Qiao, Andrea Ascani, Stefano Breschi, Andrea Morrison, May 28, 2025

We investigate the relationship between high-skill returnees and innovation of Chinese publicly listed firms. To this aim, we construct a unique dataset of 2,499 firms over the period 2002–2016 by combining three different data sources (i.e. CNRDS, CSMAR, and LinkedIn). Our results show that different typologies of returnees (employees, technologists, and managers) with different experiences abroad (work versus study) may bring back different skills and impact differently on firm innovation.