A Bridge on Economic Issues between China and the World
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Industrial Policy in China: Some Intended or Unintended Consequences?
Jing Cai, Ann E. Harrison, May 30, 2018We explore the consequences of a 2004 tax change in China that reduced the value-added tax (VAT) on equipment investment. While the goal was to encourage technology upgrades, we find little evidence that the reform achieved its intended results. Although firms shifted the composition of investment toward machinery, actual investment rates were unaffected. Firms replaced labor with machinery, leading employment to fall significantly in the treated provinces and sectors. Our results suggest that the primary impact of the policy was to induce labor-saving investment.
Income Inequality among Old Chinese
Katja Hanewald, Ruo Jia, Zining Liu, Oct 16, 2019Using data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) from 1991–2015, we decompose the income inequality among old Chinese and compare the income inequality between old households and young households. We develop an OLG model and a new empirical method to test how initial socioeconomic differences transmit to income inequality in the working years and then in old age. We find that the urban-rural gap and educational differences...
The Unintended Impacts of Agricultural Fires: Human Capital in China
Joshua Graff Zivin, Tong Liu, Yingquan Song, Qu Tang, Peng Zhang, Dec 25, 2019The practice of burning agricultural waste is ubiquitous around the world, yet the external human capital costs from those fires have been underexplored. Using data from the National College Entrance Examination (NCEE) and agricultural fires detected by high-resolution satellites in China from 2005 to 2011, this paper investigates the impacts of fires on cognitive performance...
Will robots replace workers? Lessons from China
Osea Giuntella, Yi Lu, Tianyi Wang, Aug 06, 2025Robot adoption has skyrocketed in China in the last decade. New research finds that this exposure has led to a decline in employment and wages, influencing workers’ training and retirement decisions. How can developing countries prepare themselves for the artificial intelligence revolution?
Misallocation, Selection, and Productivity: A Quantitative Analysis with Panel Data from China
Tasso Adamopoulos, Loren Brandt, Jessica Leight, Diego Restuccia, Jan 05, 2022We examine the distorting effects of China’s land institutions on aggregate agricultural productivity and other outcomes. We argue these distortions affect two key margins: (1) the allocation of resources across farmers (misallocation); and (2) the type of farmers who operate in agriculture (selection).
