The 2009 Monetary Stimulus in China

Kaiji Chen, Patrick Higgins, Daniel F. Waggoner, Tao Zha, Mar 21, 2018

Massive monetary injections occurred in 2009Q1-Q4 as a result of a drastic change in monetary policy causing an unprecedented credit expansion in 2009-2011, which stimulated economic growth in the short-run. New credit was disproportionately allocated to real estate and its supporting heavy industries and fueled a sharp rise in land prices. The long-lasting consequence of this monetary stimulus resulted in a twin problem facing China: the high investment-to-GDP and debt-to-GDP ratios.

Bilateral Trade and Shocks in Political Relations: Evidence from China

Yingxin Du, Jiandong Ju, Carlos D. Ramirez, Xi Yao, Mar 14, 2018

To what extent do political relations between countries affect their economic exchange? Using evidence of China’s relations with other major powers during the period of 1990 to 2013, Yingxin Du, Jiandong Ju, Carlos D. Ramirez, and Xi Yao point out the time-aggregation bias in the existing empirical research and provide insights on the relationship between political shocks and trade.

China’s Mobility Barriers and Employment Allocations

Liwa Rachel Ngai, Chris Pissarides, Jin Wang , Mar 07, 2018

Despite reforms to the hukou household registration system and the very large rural-urban migration experienced in China, rural households are still experiencing a risk of losing their land allocation if they migrate. We argue that this risk leads to an inefficient rental market with low rents and is an impediment to migration, with consequent over-employment in agriculture and low productivity.

Can Credit Still Prop Up the Chinese Economy?

Sophia Chen, Lev Ratnovski, Feb 28, 2018

Recent IMF research explores the effectiveness of credit in supporting the Chinese economy, and compares it with the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus. The study finds that credit contributed positively to output growth in China in the early 2000s, but the effect fell to almost zero post-2010. This suggests that, at present, credit cannot effectively support further growth of the Chinese economy. In contrast, the estimated fiscal multiplier is 1.4 post-2010, which is high in international and historic comparisons. Therefore, a targeted fiscal stimulus can cushion the adjustment of the Chinese economy to lower credit growth.


Connect to Trade

Haoyuan Ding, Haichao Fan, Shu Lin, Feb 21, 2018 

Privatization and Productivity in China

Yuyu Chen, Mitsuru Igami, Masayuki Sawada, Mo Xiao, Jan 31, 2018 

The Long-term Persistence of Informal Finance in China

Jinyan Hu, Chicheng Ma, Bo Zhang, Jan 24, 2018 

Rural Property Rights and Agricultural Productivity

A. V. Chari, Elaine M. Liu, Shing-Yi Wang, Yongxiang Wang, Jan 17, 2018 

Selective Default by Local Governments in China

Haoyu Gao, Hong Ru, Dragon Yongjun Tang, Jan 10, 2018 

Trade Liberalization and the Performance of China’s Manufacturing Sector

Loren Brandt, Johannes Van Biesebroeck, Luhang Wang, Yifan Zhang, Dec 27, 2017 

Healthy Life Expectancy in China

Han Li, Katja Hanewald, Shang Wu, Dec 20, 2017