A Bridge on Economic Issues between China and the World
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Credit Expansion and Allocation Dynamics under Economic Stimulus
Lin William Cong, Jacopo Ponticelli, Sep 13, 2017We study credit allocation across firms and its real effects during China’s economic stimulus plan of 2009-2010 using loan-level data from the 19 largest Chinese banks matched with firm-level data on manufacturing firms. We find that the stimulus-driven credit expansion significantly affected firm borrowing, investment, and employment. The plan disproportionately favored state-owned firms and firms with a lower marginal product of capital, reversing the process of capital reallocation that characterized China’s high growth before 2008.
Book Synopsis Invisible China: Hundreds of Millions of Rural Underemployed May Slow China’s Growth
Scott Rozelle, Natalie Hell, Jun 02, 2021Ｎo assessment of China's growth is complete without considering the implications of having hundreds of millions of underemployed people in China's economy for the foreseeable future. The bottom line is that China needs to build on its recent efforts to boost rural education, health and nutrition, and early childhood development, and do so at a pace and intensity that recognizes these are potentially among the biggest problems the nation faces.
The Financing of Local Government in China: Stimulus Loans Wane and Shadow Banking Waxes
Zhuo Chen, Zhiguo He, Chun Liu, Jinyu Liu, Jul 05, 2017The shadow banking activities in China surged in 2012-2013. Prof. Zhuo Chen and Prof. Chun Liu from Tsinghua University, Prof. Zhiguo He from Chicago Booth and Prof. Jinyu Liu from the University of International Business and Economics provide empirical evidence showing that the “barbarian growth” of China’s shadow banking during this period constitute a “hangover effect” from the four trillion RMB stimulus package in 2009.
Shadow Banking: China’s Dual-Track Interest Rate Liberalization
Hao Wang, Honglin Wang, Lisheng Wang, Hao Zhou, Jul 26, 2017Professors Hao Wang and Hao Zhou, both of Tsinghua University, Honglin Wang formerly of Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (HKIMR) and Lisheng Wang of Chinese University of Hong Kong, argue that the shadow banking explosion in China may constitute a dual-track reform mechanism to liberalize the country's rigid interest rate policy.
The Real Driver of China’s Growth: Internal Economic Reform
Trevor Tombe, Xiaodong Zhu, Apr 03, 2019Many people have attributed China’ s growth since 2001 to its accession to WTO and the resulting rapid export expansion. We provide quantitative evidence showing that internal economic reform, not export expansion, was the real driver of China’ s growth in the period after 2001. We also show that there is still large potential growth from further internal reform in China.
