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The COVID-19 Pandemic and Job Creation: The Role of Global Supply Chains
Hanming Fang, Chunmian Ge, Hanwei Huang, Hongbin Li, Dec 30, 2020Using big data of more than 100 million posted jobs from China, we estimate how the COVID-19 pandemic affected local labor demand in China via global supply chains. The data reveal that the number of newly posted jobs was about 31% lower in the first 14 weeks after the Wuhan lockdown than comparable periods in 2018 and 2019. We show that COVID-19 cases abroad and foreign governments’ pandemic-control policies reduced new job creation in China by 11.7%...
Internal Capital Markets in Business Groups and the Propagation of Credit Supply Shocks
Yu Shi, Robert Townsend, Wu Zhu, Sep 25, 2019Using business registry data from China, we show that internal capital markets in business groups can propagate corporate shareholders' credit supply shocks to their subsidiaries. An average of 16.7% local bank credit growth where corporate shareholders are located would increase subsidiaries investment by 1% of their tangible fixed asset value, which accounts for 71% (7%) of the median (average) investment rate among these firms...
Does Good Luck Make People Overconfident? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in China
Huasheng Gao, Donghui Shi, Bin Zhao, Aug 01, 2018We find that retail investors who win an allotment for an IPO subscription subsequently become more overconfident relative to retail investors who do not have an allotment. The former group subsequently trades more frequently and loses more money. Overall, our evidence indicates that the experience of good luck makes people more overconfident about their prospects.
Rebalancing in China: Progress and Prospects
Longmei Zhang, Aug 02, 2017This paper develops a framework for China’s rebalancing, reviews past progress, and discusses medium-term prospects. China has advanced well in reducing its excessive external surplus and moving towards consumption and services, while still lagging behind in reducing credit reliance, environmental pollution, and income inequality. Going forward, the economy will continue rebalancing in many dimensions, while credit will remain China’s Achilles heel unless decisive corporate restructuring and SOE reforms are implemented.
Data, Collateral, and Implications for the Credit Cycle
Leonardo Gambacorta, Yiping Huang, Zhenhua Li, Han Qiu, Dec 09, 2020The use of massive amounts of data by large technology firms (big techs) to assess firms’ creditworthiness could reduce the need for collateral in credit markets. Using a unique dataset of more than 2 million Chinese firms that received credit from both an important big tech firm (Ant Group) and traditional commercial banks, we find that a greater use of big tech...
