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Can Credit Still Prop Up the Chinese Economy?

Sophia Chen, Lev Ratnovski, Feb 28, 2018

Recent IMF research explores the effectiveness of credit in supporting the Chinese economy, and compares it with the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus. The study finds that credit contributed positively to output growth in China in the early 2000s, but the effect fell to almost zero post-2010. This suggests that, at present, credit cannot effectively support further growth of the Chinese economy. In contrast, the estimated fiscal multiplier is 1.4 post-2010, which is high in international and historic comparisons. Therefore, a targeted fiscal stimulus can cushion the adjustment of the Chinese economy to lower credit growth.

Accounting for Urban China’s Rising Income Inequality: The Roles of the Labor Market, Human Capital, and Marriage Market Factors

Shuaizhang Feng, Gaojie Tang, Mar 27, 2019

China has witnessed persistent increases in economic inequality since the early 1990s when the urban labor market began its transformation — from centrally-controlled to market-driven. Using the Urban Household Survey data, this paper (Feng and Tang, 2018) documents the trends...

In Rural China, Gift-Giving Is an Increasingly Costly Competition

Erwin Bulte, Ruixin Wang, Xiaobo Zhang, May 01, 2019

Gift expenditures grow swiftly in rural China and may adversely affect people's welfare. While gift-giving helps to maintain social status and connections, gift competition may create a predicament: people must spend more and more to "keep up with the Joneses." As a result, the escalating gift expenses crowd out spending on other important consumption and become increasingly burdensome to people in rural areas, particularly to the poor.

China’s War on Pollution: A Review of Evidence from the First Five Years

Michael Greenstone, Guojun He, Shanjun Li, Eric Zou, Jun 30, 2021

The decade from 2010 to 2019 marked a significant turning point in China’s approach to environmental regulation and pollution. This review article examines recent trends in air and water quality, with a focus on the five years following the Chinese government’s announcement of its “war on pollution” in 2014. It also summarizes the emerging literature that has taken advantage of recent improvements in data availability and accuracy to understand the social, economic, and health impacts of environmental pollution in China.

The Long-Run Trend of Residential Investment in China

Ding Ding, Weicheng Lian, Oct 09, 2019

Residential investment has been a key growth engine for China in the last two decades. Total housing investment grew from about 4 percent of GDP in 1997 to a peak of 15 percent of GDP in 2014, with residential investment accounting for more than two-thirds of it. Our analysis indicates that structural changes in the Chinese economy that led to rebalancing toward consumption...