A Bridge on Economic Issues between China and the World
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Faking Trade for Capital Control Evasion: Evidence from Dual Exchange Rate Arbitrage in China
Renliang Liu, Liugang Sheng, Jian Wang, Nov 25, 2020We examine whether firms over-report international trade to evade capital controls for foreign exchange arbitrage, by specifically testing whether the aggregate bilateral trade data gap between trading partners is positively (negatively) correlated with the exchange rate spread when the spread is positive (negative). At the disaggregated level, we also employ Benford’s law to detect trade data manipulations...
Forecasting China’s Economic Growth
Patrick Higgins, Tao Zha, Karen Zhong, Jun 20, 2017As the second largest economy, China intrigues heated debates among policymakers and researchers alike on how fast its economy will grow in the future and how truthfully the official data reflect its actual economic growth. Patrick Higgins and Tao Zha from the Atlanta Fed and Karen Zhong from Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance develop a replicable econometric model to shed light on these issues.
The Anatomy of Chinese Innovation: Insights on Patent Quality and Ownership
Philipp Boeing, Loren Brandt, Ruochen Dai, Kevin Lim, Bettina Peters, May 07, 2025Chinese patenting has become narrower and less innovative over time. The role of overseas knowledge has also declined sharply. These findings are salient in the context of a marked slowdown in economic growth in China and rising concerns of technological decoupling with the US.
China’s Producer Price Reflation in 2016–2017: Capacity Cuts or Recovering Aggregate Demand?
Linxi Chen, Ding Ding, Rui C. Mano, Nov 23, 2018In late 2015, the Chinese government launched a multi-year plan to reduce capacity in the coal and steel industries. Around the same time, producer price inflation in China started to pick up strongly after being trapped in negative territory for 4½ years. What is behind this broad reflation—cuts in coal and steel capacity or a strengthening of aggregate demand...
How Does the Interaction between China’s Monetary and Regulatory Policies Impact Shadow Banking and Total Bank Credit?
Kaiji Chen, Jue Ren, Tao Zha, Jul 12, 2017Following the four Trillion RMB fiscal stimulus in 2009, People's Bank of China tightened up its M2 supply. Kaiji Chen, Jue Ren and Zha Tao from Emory University and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta explored how the banks reacted to the tightening of M2 supply by expanding shadow banking activities, and how the rapid growth of shadow banking in turn hampers the effectiveness of monetary policy.
